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Letzte Kommentare
- Benedita bei Germany: The shadow side of the rocky reform road
- Immobilienmakler in Hamburg bei Die Wachstumsprognose 2007 — ein “moving target”
- Aimée bei The case against stabilization policy — why is the discussion in the U.S. often so different from Europe?
- tabata bei Nullum crimen, nulla poena sine praevia lege poenali: A Reply to Ester Faia and Ignazio Angeloni
- Mała Księgowość bei Nullum crimen, nulla poena sine praevia lege poenali: A Reply to Ester Faia and Ignazio Angeloni
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Tag Archives: Germany
DIW im Abseits
Auch wenn ich sonst nicht allzu viel mit den Kommentaren von Frau Heß übereinstimme 
http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/handelsblatt-kommentar/diw-manoevriert-sich-ins-abseits;2238423
… ist absolut zutreffend. Und das DIW hat gerade übrigens mindestens zwei Prognosen abgegeben, die das Jahr 2010 betreffen: Wir brauchen kein Konjunkturpaket III und die weltweite Inflation steht vor der Tür (2009 kann ja da schlecht gemeint sein ….).
Zum letzten Punkt sei nur empfohlen, Brad DeLongs hervorragende Analyse
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/04/delong-simple-keynesianism-for-monetarists-a-primer.html
zu lesen. Kein weiterer Kommentar nötig.
P.S. Ich bin — trotz anderweitiger Darstellung auf der Homepage des DIW — kein Mitarbeiter der Konjunkturabteilung mehr.
How strong will the slowdown be in the Eurozone and Germany?
The financial turmoil raises concern about the strength of the slowdown in Germany and the Eurozone. Even if the stock market seems to be on a recovery paths, the interesting questions for firms, households and policy is indeed how strong the recession might be.
Two recently published forecasts and policy analysis papers try to shed light on the issue.
Germany: The shadow side of the rocky reform road
In a recent post and in direct or indirect reply to a post by Michael Burda, I talked about the "rocky road to full employment" — borrowing a phrase from the neo-structuralist Lance Taylor. In short, neo-structuralist thinking in the spirit of Taylor describes economic development as an integrated process with a special focus on distributional conflicts, the interaction with social and political structures (to a large extent inherited from colonial past) and a far more open view regarding state interventions as in more market-dominated approaches.
Germany’s Rocky Road To Full Employment
(co-posted at RGE Europe EconoMonitor)
The Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter once wrote on Marx’ economic theory that “…Marx’ economic ideas are embedded into a variety of very hot (in German: “dampfende“) phrases which gives them a temperature which is far from the own temperature” (from “Kapitalismus, Sozialismus und Demokratie“, own translation). The same can be said about the structural reform debate in Germany.
FT Deutschland’s chief economist Thomas Fricke collected a number of quotations, which are worthwile to be translated (own translation, German version in brackets):
The German Turnaround: The reform story revisited, part III
in cooperation with Sebastian Dullien
Last Thursday, the leading German economic research institutes have published their semi-annual diagnosis of the state of the German economy. Similarly to Michael Burda’s post on RGE Monitor, they warn that the Grand Coalition must not fall into a "reform pause". Just like Michael Burda, they credit part of the German turnaround to the Agenda 2010 reforms (never mind that they did not see any significant growth impact from them when they were passed – see this comment by Thomas Fricke at FT Deutschland’s website).
The German Turnaround: The reform story revisited, part II
(in cooperation with Sebastian Dullien)
Today, the German tabloid "Bild" ran a story that a number of top German employer federations have written a joint memorandum warning the government of rolling back even parts of the "Agenda 2010" reforms enacted by the Schröder government. According to them, the recent upswing in German can at least partly be credited to these reforms, much as Michael Burda has argued. Any change would thus endanger the recovery.
We have already written a post on Monday in which we question this wisdom, stating that such an interpretation of the origins of the German turnaround is not covered by developments into the German labour market.
The German Turnaround: the reform story revisited, part I
by Sebastian Dullien, in cooperation with Ulrich Fritsche.
With politicians from right and left in Germany discussing a possible new extension of the duration of unemployment benefits for the elderly, a new debate in Germany has started concerning the reasons of the recent upswing. The central question of the argument is: What role did the labour market reforms of the Schröder government play for the "Teutonic turnaround" as Michael Burda calls the recent development in his first post for this blog?